Consensus Forecast On Tesla Model 3 Production For 2017 Surges To ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In case you’re still trying to remember what happened in 2017, allow us to remind you that Tesla Motors Inc., (the shell company for Elon Musk’s growing religious organization) makes sexy electric cars and the sexiest solar panels.

And you might also recall that while everyone loves Tesla because it’s…cool(?), some people are worried that it doesn’t have the production infrastructure to make a lot of cars, which is bad for a car company. It’s also bad for any public company to be shrouded in so much doubt, especially if the CEO keeps telling everyone that there is nothing to see here and he can easily pump put 5,000 of his Model 3s every week despite never having come even remotely close to a number with that many zeros in it, ever.

But luckily for Tesla shareholders it’s technically a public company, so smart people are paid handsomely to watch it closely and suss out what’s really going on inside Elon’s little futuristic fifedom.

So, what say you about 2017 Q4 production of the Tesla Model 3, Wall Street analysts?…

Tesla Inc. may have delivered about four times more Model 3 sedans last quarter than in the prior three months, or boosted sales by a factor of 27, depending on which analyst you ask.
The broad range of estimates reflects how little the electric-car maker has disclosed about the progress it’s made speeding up production of its sedan that starts at $35,000. Model 3 deliveries might have climbed to about 2,917 vehicles, the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Jeez, guys, how far apart are we talking here?

As a result, analyst estimates are all over the map. Jeffrey Osborne of Cowen & Co. on Tuesday forecast deliveries of 2,250 Model 3 sedans in the final quarter of 2017, down from his earlier estimate of 9,100. Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer estimates only 800. Manufacturing bottlenecks limited third-quarter deliveries to just 220 cars.
Gene Munster, co-founder of research-driven venture capital firm Loup Ventures, estimates about 2,500 Model 3 deliveries for the quarter but said he remains bullish on the stock long term.

Oy vey. And since we can only assume that Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is estimating that Tesla is going to deliver 1 million cars for the quarter, we take extra-deep enjoyment from witnessing another day of counterfactual zealous optimism in the land of Tesla.

Tesla’s Scant Disclosures on the Model 3 Leave Wall Street Guessing [Bloomberg]

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