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Tesla Earnings: What to Watch

Electric cars from Tesla at a charging station in Beijing on July 25.
Electric cars from Tesla at a charging station in Beijing on July 25. Photo: Roman Pilipey/epa-efe/rex/shutte/EPA/Shutterstock

Tesla Inc. TSLA -1.24% is expected to release second-quarter financial results after the market closes Wednesday. Here’s what you need to know:

EARNINGS FORECAST: Tesla is expected to post an adjusted-loss of $2.88 a share, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet, compared with an adjusted loss of $1.33 a share a year earlier.

REVENUE FORECAST: Revenue is expected to rise to $3.99 billion, according to FactSet, from $2.79 billion a year earlier. Tesla said last month that total vehicle deliveries reached 40,740, a dramatic increase from more than 22,000 vehicles a year earlier thanks to increased production of the Model 3 sedan. Tesla sold 18,440 Model 3s during the period and finally reached the goal of making 5,000 of them in a single week during the last seven days of the quarter, helped in part by taking the unusual step of setting up a general assembly line under a massive tent outside the company’s Fremont, Calif., factory.

WHICH ELON MUSK? Who will show up for the public conference call with analysts? The charming chief executive whose vision for an electric-car future has sent the company’s market value soaring to rival General Motors Co. ? Or the grumpy one who last appeared during the May analyst call, sparring with Wall Street’s questioners, turning a normally staid event into something that worried investors and sent shares plummeting. He’s subsequently found himself on Twitter warring with short sellers and apologizing for suggesting one of the cave rescuers in Thailand was a pedophile. “We’re not holding our breath for answers to some of the questions that remain central to the bull/bear debate,” Brian Johnson, an analyst for Barclays, told investors in a note on Tuesday.

CASH BURN: Mr. Musk has promised that a continued rate of building 5,000 Model 3s a week will help generate the cash Tesla needs to become cash-flow positive in the third quarter and turn a profit. Investors will be looking to see if that plan is still on track, especially after Tesla last month asked some suppliers to return some payments dating back to 2016 to help the auto maker become profitable, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Tesla confirmed it had requested the refunds from some suppliers as part of negotiations. While Mr. Musk has said he doesn’t need to raise more cash, many analysts say Tesla does. They’ll probably be looking for how Tesla plans to pay for planned factories in China and Europe as well as new vehicles, such as the Model Y compact sport-utility vehicle. The company ended the first quarter with $2.7 billion in cash on hand.

THREE’S A CHARM: Investors will be looking for signals about demand for the Model 3. Last month, Tesla confirmed that it had delivered a total of 200,000 electric vehicles in the U.S., triggering the phaseout of federal tax credits beginning at the end of the year. Analysts have said this could affect reservation holders who had been hoping for the full credit, [add: given a vehicle with a $35,000 price tag. The base-price version hasn’t gone into production yet, while Tesla focuses on more pricier versions. The expiration of the tax credit could carry a benefit, according to Colin Langan, an analyst for UBS. “This expiring tax credit may also mean some sales are likely pulled forward from 2019, and we believe may also help the company achieve its 2H guidance of positive net income and cash flow,” he wrote in a note to investors.

Write to Tim Higgins at Tim.Higgins@WSJ.com

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