Tesla is getting China right, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch

Tesla Inc. may be able to ramp up production in China faster than anyone believed, possibly landing the Silicon Valley car maker as the “leading luxury EV player” in the country, analysts at Morgan Stanley said Wednesday.

The analysts, led by Adam Jonas, said their team in China had just returned from visiting Chinese suppliers with “fresh feedback” on Tesla’s plans in the country and the under-construction factory in Shanghai.

“If they’re right, Tesla TSLA, +1.94% may be able to ramp China production faster than we have currently anticipated in our model,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.

The analysts kept their rating on the stock as the equivalent of neutral and a price target of $230, a 10% downside over Wednesday’s prices.

They expect production in the Shanghai plant to start in November, the analysts said. The factory is likely to make 35,000 to 40,000 vehicles by next year, and around 60,000 in 2021.

Over the next three to five years, Tesla would be leading the way in China in luxury EVs, they said.

The Chinese market will remain “highly competitive,” however, and Tesla’s volume is likely to peak at 254,000 vehicles sold in 2024, before falling to the 160,000 to 170,000 range by 2030, they said.

The car maker is expected to report second-quarter earnings next week, and updates on its China plans are likely. Tesla earlier this month reported second-quarter sales that beat analyst expectations.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report a second-quarter adjusted loss of 41 cents a share, which would compare with an adjusted loss of $3.06 a share in the year-ago period. Sales are seen rising to $6.5 billion in the quarter, compared with $4 billion a year ago.

Tesla shares have gained 14% this month, which follows gains of 21% for June — a reprieve from three straight monthly losses earlier in the year. The stock is down 23% this year, contrasting with gains of 20% and 17% for the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.29% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, -0.21%

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