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Tesla is worth $10, $250 or $500 - Financial Times

Alphaville is a big fan of Morgan Stanley equity analyst Adam Jonas. He’s a dreamer, a romanticist and an explorer of the unknown (via discounted cash flow projections).

We often imagine him like the figure in Casper David Friedrich’s famous painting of the lonely wanderer: gazing out at a future, and world, still unknown:

Over the years, Jonas’s commentary on electric car company Tesla has kept us amused, as you might have noticed back in May when we recounted his greatest hits.

So it was with some excitement that we opened his latest note on Elon Musk’s grand vision of a green future. It didn’t disappoint.

This note was an update to the Jonas bull-case for Tesla, with a price target raise to $500 under his best-case scenario. The reason? Well, here’s a snippet:

We are increasing our Tesla bull case to $500 to reflect the potential success of the Tesla Cybertruck and incorporate the bull case potential of China, which includes higher levels of profitability vs. the overall company (as we wrote in our November 13th note Tesla Inc: Shanghai Giga = Porsche-Like Margins?). $500 represents a $60 increase in our TSLA bull case, with $20 dollars coming from the Cybertruck, unveiled on Nov. 21 (we do not include any Cybertruck units in our base case PT), and $40 from incremental Tesla China volume and profitability.

Fair enough. His price target, we note, remains unchanged at $250 -- 25 per cent below where Tesla’s equity currently trades.

However what really caught our eye was this graphic of Jonas’ expected outcomes for Tesla’s stock -- and like us, and many other watchers of the company -- his expectations for what might happen to it are pretty, erm, broad:

Yep, so Tesla’s equity is worth either $10, $250, or $500. Place your bets.

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Tesla is worth $10, $250 or $500 - Financial Times
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